https://arab.news/2nnj9
- Expert predicts war in Ukraine would end within the next six months
- Despite bringing a ceasefire in Gaza, Trump鈥檚 presidency does not signal guaranteed peace in Palestine, warn analysts
DUBAI: Donald Trump鈥檚 US presidency will likely bring peace in Ukraine even if the future of the Middle East remains unclear, panelists at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos said on Tuesday.
The annual meetings, which got into full swing on Tuesday, comes a day after Trump was sworn in for his second term as the 47th US president, marking perhaps the greatest political comeback in American history.
In one of the earliest sessions, a panel of political analysts and experts shared their 鈥渆arly thoughts鈥� on Trump鈥檚 actions on his first day back in office as speculation rises about the implications of his presidency on the domestic and international fronts.
Graham Allison, Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard Kennedy School of Government, predicted the war in Ukraine would end within the next six months.
鈥淚f you look at [Trump鈥檚] inaugural speech and the press conference, he wants to be not only a deal maker, but an international deal maker who鈥檚 a peacemaker,鈥� said Allison, adding the new president would leverage his power to strike a deal with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky or starve Kyiv of Washington鈥檚 military aid.
However, prospects of peace seem unclear in the Middle East, where a major paradigm shift took place last year with the decline of Iran and its proxies, as well as the new governments that rose to power in Syria and Lebanon.
Trump took credit for implementing a fragile ceasefire in Gaza after 14 months of negotiations.
鈥淵ou can see a paradigm shift without peace. Israel has had a strategic problem since the 1940s (in) that it wins wars but cannot get to a stable peaceful arrangement. And I think that that remains the case,鈥� said Walter Mead, Ravenel B. Curry III Distinguished Fellow in Strategy and Statesmanship at Hudson Institute.
He noted the decline of the 鈥淚ranian challenge鈥� as the only factor destabilizing the Middle East was no guarantee of lasting peace in the Middle East.
鈥淧eace in the Middle East perhaps remains a beautiful but maybe distant dream,鈥� warned Mead.
Despite bringing a ceasefire in Gaza, Trump鈥檚 presidency does not signal guaranteed peace in Palestine given his desire to expand the Abraham Accords and resume pressure on Tehran.
Panelists warned of the consequences of Trump鈥檚 return to power.
Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group, warned against treating Trump as 鈥渏ust another president鈥� given his victory despite impeachments and criminal indictments.
鈥淚t鈥檚 a very unusual time to have an individual that is in no way concerned about, or constrained by, rule of law,鈥� said Bremmer, referring to the global power that Trump has amassed in light of America鈥檚 post-COVID-19 economic growth and tech dominance, combined with the weakening of Washington鈥檚 adversaries like China, Russia and Iran.
鈥淭o understand what Trump will do is to understand who pays him.鈥�
In his first two days in office, Trump has already taken major decisions that include withdrawing the US from the World Health Organization and the Paris Agreement on climate change for the second time.
Although panelists signaled optimism towards his domestic economic policies, they disagreed on Washington鈥檚 projected relationship with China during his tenure.
鈥淚 think that we are heading towards a trade war and towards a more strategic decoupling of the economies. One reason for that is because Trump isn鈥檛 just focusing on tariffs on China, but he鈥檚 also focusing on third countries where there are pass-throughs to the US,鈥� said Bremmer.
Trump unexpectedly held off tariffs on China on his first day back at the White House and delayed the ban on short video app TikTok. But in an unprecedented move he floated the possibility of a joint venture, saying he was seeking a 50-50 partnership between Washington and Chinese owner ByteDance.
鈥淕etting to a deal with China will require a level of execution implementation that鈥檚 far more complicated across the Trump administration, not to mention some support from the GOP and Congress, and we鈥檙e nowhere close to that,鈥� said Bremmer.
However, Allison predicted positive relations between both economic powers as their leaders enjoy a 鈥渧ery right relationship鈥� and could find common areas of cooperation, including ending the war in Ukraine.
He added: 鈥淚n terms of their interests, while fundamentally in the long run there is rivalry of a rising and ruling power, but if I look at the agency and the opportunities for agency here, doing a deal to conclude a war in Ukraine is not hard for [Xi Jinping] to be part of.鈥�
World leaders, business titans, and policymakers gathered in Davos, Switzerland, for the WEF鈥檚 55th annual meeting, which runs until Jan. 24.
This year鈥檚 conference explores ways to tackle shared challenges like climate change, technology, and economic inequality through global collaboration.